Polymarket BTC 5-Minute Up/Down Bot

A complete market-making bot for the Polymarket BTC 5-minute up/down prediction market. Three subsystems: price forecasting, order book management, and risk control.

Features

• Forecasting engine: Direction-probability model from real-time BTC spot + perp basis + funding rate
• Order book quoting: Dynamic quoting with auto-balancing; instant hedging on fills
• Risk guardrails: Position caps, max drawdown, circuit breakers
• On-chain settlement: Direct integration with Polymarket CTF (Conditional Token Framework)
• Full backtest: Six months of historical tick data + backtest script

Who it's for

• Quant traders entering the crypto prediction market space
• DeFi engineers learning Polymarket CTF integration
• Arbitrage strategy researchers